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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 08/10 07:14
Cotton Has Benign Start Monday
After a strong week of trading in which the cotton market advanced some 250
points, it is off to a more gentle pace Monday
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After a strong week of trading in which the cotton market advanced some 250
points, it is off to a more gentle pace Monday. Traders note the friendly
participation of the funds via the CFTC report and are anticipating this
Wednesday's supply-demand update.
Last Friday, the CFTC issued its weekly Commitments of Traders report. Its
data showed managed-money funds net-bought 9,869 positions, swelling their
bullish carry to 62,279 contracts.
Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will send out its latest condition numbers on the
2026 crop. Last week, the combined top 15 producing states were rated 42% good
to excellent versus the prior reading of 46%.
This Wednesday at noon eastern, USDA will update its supply-demand tables
via its August WASDE. Last issuance revealed an increase in the U.S. crop from
13.30 million to 13.70 million bales. Ending stocks also jumped from 3.70
million bales to 4.10 million.
Crude oil is trading higher Monday morning. Over the weekend, Houthi rebels
launched missiles against Saudi oil fields. Traders continue to assess mixed
signals from the U.S. and Iran, leaving the American Public quite confused with
that situation.
The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 15-19) shows above to much-above
normal temperatures for the length and breadth of the U.S. Cotton Belt.
Rain-wise, West Texas should see nearly normal chances, while the Delta and the
Southeast will likely experience below-normal opportunities.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 82.50 cents and 81.10 cents,
with resistance around 85.00 cents and 85.50 cents. Monday morning's estimated
volume is 10,911 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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