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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 09/28 07:10
Cotton Under Pressure as Markets Await Reports
The overnight cotton market was somewhat lower as traders began to adjust
certain positions as a response to end-on-the-month and end-of-the quarter
squaring.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The overnight cotton market was somewhat lower as traders began to adjust
certain positions as a response to end-on-the-month and end-of-the quarter
squaring. Of course, traders are also assessing Friday's CFTC update, and also
awaiting several key economic reports this week.
Last Friday, the CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders data. Its
numbers show managed-money funds had sold some 16,000 positions, thereby
reducing their net long carry to 81,610. For context their earlier bullish
position was a record 108,788 contracts.
Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the condition and the harvest pace
for the 2026 crop. Last week, the crop was rated 34% good-to-excellent, with
actual gathering efforts at 13%.
There are a slew of key economic reports to be released this week, including
the August personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) on Wednesday.
Supposedly that report is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Also updated
U.S. manufacturing numbers are out Thursday, followed by Friday's September
jobs report. Agriculturally, USDA will issue its quarterly grains inventory
numbers on Wednesday and exports-sales on Thursday.
Overnight, crude oil and related markets are sharply higher, after President
Trump rejected Iran's plan to reopen Hormuz in seven days. Apparently, Iran's
proposal totally favored the country, while making no concessions of any kind.
For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 81.55 and 80.75
cents, with resistance around 84.00 and 84.90 cents. This morning's estimated
volume is 19,071 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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