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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 10/16 07:47
Cotton Edges Higher
Cotton prices stabilize as inflation fears ease, exports remain weak.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
With most bearish "inflation news" now discounted, the cotton market is able
to get a touch of positive breathing room this Friday morning. Still, with
overhanging bearish supply-demand numbers from USDA, and the continuing 2026
harvest, any attempt at a real rally will likely get blunted. Traders will
assess today's various cotton reports and then move on into next week.
USDA just released weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net
sales of Upland totaling 146,900 running bales (RB) for 2026/2027 were down 11
percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior four-week average.
Increases primarily for Costa Rica (74,300 RB), India (21,300 RB), Pakistan
(19,800 RB), China (8,900 RB switched from Vietnam), and Turkey (7,800 RB),
were offset by reductions for Indonesia (2,700 RB) and Nicaragua (1,400 RB).
Net sales of 7,200 RB for 2027/2028 were reported for Costa Rica (6,700 RB) and
Pakistan (400 RB). Exports of 140,600 RB were down 13 percent from the previous
week and 9 percent from the prior four-week average.
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (40,800 RB), India (20,100 RB),
Bangladesh (12,400 RB), Turkey (10,100 RB), and Mexico (9,100 RB). Net sales of
Pima totaling 10,000 RB for 2026/2027 were up noticeably from the previous week
and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for India (8,300 RB),
Bangladesh (1,200 RB), Turkey (300 RB), Guatemala (200 RB), and Vietnam (100
RB), were offset by reductions for Italy (200 RB). Exports of 10,400 RB were up
noticeably from the previous week and up 49 percent from the prior 4-week
average. The destinations were primarily to India (7,500 RB), Thailand (900
RB), Peru (700 RB), Bangladesh (400 RB), and Colombia (300 RB).
At 3:30p.m. EST Friday, the CFTC will update its C-O-T numbers. Last week, the
managed-money funds net sold some 10,000 positions reducing their net-long
carry to 63,837 contracts.
According to a Fed survey released Friday, the ability of U.S. families to
stay current on their debts has worsened over the past three years, hitting
levels not seen since the global financial crisis. The report found that for
the three-year period, ending in 2025, the portion of families behind on loan
payments soared from about 12% in the prior survey to nearly 20%.
Next Monday, the USDA will release its Crop Progress data. The previous
report had the US crop rated 34% good/excellent, a slight uptick in its
condition, while harvest was pegged at 31% versus a five-year average of being
29% complete.
For Friday, close-in support for December Cotton stands at 7970 and 7905, with
resistance around 8100 and 8175. Friday morning's estimated volume is 9,421
contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
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