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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 06/04 07:53
Cotton Wallows in Non-Direction Thursday
The cotton market is starting Thursday's session somewhat lower, as the
trend seems to have lost its bullish compass.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is starting Thursday's session somewhat lower, as the
trend seems to have lost its bullish compass. Ever since its early week rally,
the market has been on defense as the planting pace and weather conditions are
unfolding, while demand still remains an economic weight. Traders will assess
Thursday's export sales and certainly Friday's CFTC update for trading
influences.
USDA just released its weekly export sales report with the following numbers:
"Net sales of Upland totaling 185,300 RB for 2025/2026 were up 21 percent
from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior four-week average.
Increases primarily for Vietnam (109,900 RB, including 100 RB switched from
South Korea and decreases of 200 RB), Pakistan (16,500 RB), Turkey (14,200 RB),
China (11,000 RB, including 1,400 RB switched from Malaysia, 400 RB switched
from Vietnam, and decreases of 4,700 RB), and Bangladesh (8,200 RB), were
offset by reductions for South Korea (100 RB). Net sales of 77,100 RB for
2026/2027 were primarily for Mexico (24,000 RB), Indonesia (14,100 RB),
Pakistan (12,300 RB), Vietnam (10,600 RB), and Thailand (7,700 RB). Exports of
268,800 RB were down 15 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the
prior four week average. The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (79,100
RB), Turkey (48,200 RB), Pakistan (41,700 RB), China (26,200 RB), and
Bangladesh (22,200 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 5,400 RB for 2025/2026 were
up 95 percent from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior
four-week average. Increases reported for India (3,600 RB), Djibouti (1,300 RB
switched from China), Hong Kong (1,100 RB), Vietnam (400 RB), and Japan (300
RB), were offset by reductions for China (1,300 RB). Net sales of 36,800 RB for
2026/2027 were reported for Vietnam (35,200 RB) and India (1,600 RB). Exports
of 18,700 RB-a marketing-year high-, were up weekly and up 69% on the four-week
average. The destinations were primarily to India (6,800 RB), Vietnam (5,200
RB), Pakistan (3,200 RB), China (2,200 RB), and Bangladesh (700 RB)."
Friday, the Labor Department will release its jobs numbers for May. Last
month's data showed a much higher employment rate than most were expecting. For
this report, expectations call for non-farms jobs to be at 95,000 versus the
prior 115,000 jobs.
Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders Report. Last
week's numbers showed the occurrence of net-selling for the first time in a
dozen weeks. Managed-money funds sold some 7,400 positions, reducing their
overall net-long position to some 54,000 contracts. The data will be out at
3:30 p.m. EDT.
As a reminder, option expiration for the July contract is Friday, June 12,
while the spot July contract commences delivery on June 24, running through
July 9.
The 6- to 10-day forecast (June 9-June 13) shows slightly above normal
temperatures for the Texas Panhandle, while the Delta and the Southeast are
expecting to have much-above normal temperatures. Rain-wise, most of the U.S.
Cotton Belt looks to have slightly above normal opportunities for
precipitation.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 79.60 cents and 79.00 cents,
with resistance around 81.75 cents and 82.25 cents. This morning's estimated
volume is 13,110 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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