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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 04/02 07:51
Cotton Blunted By Outside Markets
The cotton market is somewhat lower Thursday as the geopolitical markets of
crude, gold, the Dow Jones, and the U.S. dollar are all racing off in various
directions.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market is somewhat lower Thursday as the geopolitical markets of
crude, gold, the Dow Jones, and the U.S. dollar are all racing off in various
directions. Last night, President Trump laid out the size and scope of Epic
Fury, concluding it will take more time to finish the job. Traders will assess
Thursday's export sales and shipments report, Friday's CFTC data, and the jobs
report from the Labor Department, all ahead of the Easter holiday.
USDA just released its weekly Export Sales and Shipments report with the
following data: "Net sales of Upland totaling 371,500 RB for 2025/2026 were up
noticeably from the previous week and up 94 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases primarily for Vietnam (170,500 RB, including 3,300 RB
switched from China and decreases of 4,900 RB), Turkey (59,400 RB, including
decreases of 100RB), China (55,000 RB, including decreases of 100 RB), Pakistan
(45,600 RB), and Bangladesh (9,200 RB), were offset by reductions for Indonesia
(1,500 RB) and Honduras (300 RB). Net sales of 117,300 RB for 2026/2027 were
primarily for Turkey (39,600 RB), Mexico (37,000 RB), Japan (32,100 RB),
Thailand (3,800 RB), and Vietnam (3,500 RB). Exports of 356,700 RB were down 11
percent from the previous week, but up 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The destinations were primarily to Vietnam (104,100 RB), Pakistan (38,600 RB),
Bangladesh (36,100 RB), Turkey (32,000 RB), and India (28,600 RB). Net sales of
Pima totaling 15,500 RB for 2025/2026 were down 50 percent from the previous
week, but up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily
for China (8,500 RB), India (3,500 RB), Peru (2,000 RB), Vietnam (500 RB), and
Turkey (300 RB). Exports of 7,600 RB were down 3 percent from the previous week
and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily
to India (3,200 RB), Pakistan (1,400 RB), Egypt (1,300 RB), China (500 RB), and
Peru (300 RB)."
Friday, the CFTC will issue its Commitments of Traders report. At last
count, the CFTC reported managed-money funds were ne- short some 33,000
positions, way below their record bearish peak of 81,000-plus contracts. The
report will be issued at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
Also Friday, the Labor Department will release its jobs numbers for March.
For that jobs report, traders are heavily focused on a potential rebound in
hiring, with forecasts aiming between 55,000 to 70,000 new non-farm jobs added.
While February saw a surprise contraction, the market anticipates a slight
stabilization with unemployment holding near 4.3%-4.4%
All U.S. markets will be closed this Friday for the Good Friday/Easter
holiday.
Chart support for July cotton stands at 71.60 cents and 71,=.00 cents, with
resistance around 73.60 cents and 74.00 cents. Thursday morning's estimated
volume is 28,124 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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