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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary 08/04 07:19
Cotton Eases Lower
After its weird start to August, in which prices were harshly negative
early, but then turned positive about noon, Tuesday's market is giving back
some of those gains.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After its weird start to August, in which prices were harshly negative
early, but then turned positive about noon, Tuesday's market is giving back
some of those gains. As it stands, the yield jury is still out on an accurate
determination of the size and scope of not only the U.S. crop, but foreign
production as well.
Monday afternoon, USDA issued its Crop Progress report for the week ended
Aug. 2. Its data showed that the condition of the 2026 U.S. crop was 42% good
to excellent, versus the previous 46%, and compared to last year's reading of
55% good to excellent. Cotton setting bolls was 55%, slightly behind the
five-year average of 56%.
China's State Reserve completed its 11th consecutive sold-out auction,
Tuesday selling approximately 8,015 tonnes (about 35,266 bales). The 11-day
total reached 88,209 tonnes (about 388,120 bales), consisting of roughly 54%
U.S. cotton, 17% Brazilian and 29% Xinjiang.
The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 9-13) shows much above-normal
temperatures for Texas, as well as the Delta and the Southeast. Rain wise,
Texas looks to have normal chances, while the lower Delta will experience
below-normal opportunities. The Southeast is slated for normal chances.
Chart support for December cotton stands at 81.00 cents and 80.20 cents,
with resistance around 82.20 cents and 83.60 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated
volume is 9,789 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling
(229) 890-7780.
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