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DTN Closing Cotton 06/11 13:32
Cotton Stays Aloft Thursday
The cotton market remained higher all session Thursday amid a better export
sales report and highly neutral supply-demand data.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market remained higher all session Thursday amid a better export
sales report and highly neutral supply-demand data. Of course, traders continue
to monitor the unfolding events in the U.S./Iran conflict.
Highlights from Thursday's weekly export sales include net sales of 207,032
bales for the current marketing year and 298,689 for the 2026-27 season. The
combined seasonal total was 505,721 versus last week's total tally of 262,413
bales. Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 102% of the USDA's forecast
versus a five-year average of 111% for this point in the marketing year.
Thursday's June WASDE was essentially a "yawner" as billed. Highlights from
USDA: The 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet shows reduced beginning and ending
stocks, due to a 200,000-bale decrease from the previous year. Production,
consumption, and trade forecasts are unchanged this month, and the projected
season-average price remains at 73 cents per pound. Exports for 2025-26 are now
projected at 12.20 million bales, an increase of 200,000 from last month, while
mill use is reduced 50,000 bales to 1.55 million. As a result, ending stocks
are now forecast at 4.20 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 31%. The
2025-26 season-average farm price remains estimated at 63 cents per pound.
World cotton supply for 2026-27 is slightly lower due to reduced beginning
stocks. Production remains at 116.0 million bales, with trade marginally down.
Consumption edges up to 121.8 million bales, driven by increased demand from
China despite declines for Bangladesh, Pakistan, and South Korea. Ending stocks
for 2026-27 are reduced slightly this month to 71.1 million bales, mainly
because of lower beginning stocks. For 2025-26, higher world exports reduce
ending stocks, with global production and use largely unchanged. Exports are
raised by over 1%, led by Brazil, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Turkey.
Global production is increased by 15,000 bales due to Egypt, offsetting
Argentina's decline. Consumption is lowered 25,000 bales as decreases in
several countries outweigh gains in China and Vietnam. Ending stocks are
reduced by more than 600,000 bales, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 64%.
Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders
numbers. Last week, the already net-long funds sold some 1,800 positions,
reducing their bullish carry to 52,402 contracts.
For Thursday, July closed at 72.49 cents, up 139 points; December closed at
76.36 cents, plus 106; and March 2027 finished at 77.60 cents, 100 points
higher. Thursday's estimated volume was 123,082 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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