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DTN Closing Cotton 07/23 13:32
Cotton Rally Fades on Weak Export Sales
Early Thursday, the cotton market rallied to the 82.00 cent level.
Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
Early Thursday, the cotton market rallied to the 82.00 cent level. It was
initially inspired by surging energies and strong grains, but then its
enthusiasm was dampened by miserable exports sales. Traders will likely square
positions ahead of the CFTC update and whatever geopolitical developments
unfold over the weekend.
Highlights from Thursday's export sales report include sales of 51,287
bales, for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 16,146 for the 2026/2027
season. The combined seasonal summary was 67,433 bales. Although that amount
exceeded 38,435 bales from the previous week, it was still the second lowest
since Aug. 1, 2024. Cumulative sales for 2025/26 have reached 107% of USDA's
forecast versus a five-year average of 114% for this point in the marketing
year. Shipments totaled 276,313 bales, up from 214,893 the previous week.
Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders
information. Last week saw the managed-money funds buying in some 10,500
positions, further enhancing their net-long carry to 49,688 contracts.
This Monday, USDA will issue fresh crop condition numbers. Of late, the
good-to-excellent readings have been moving two-sided. The highest reading was
54%, followed by a couple of weeks of 44% good to excellent, but this past
Monday was 46%. The number will be out at 4 p.m. EDT.
For Thursday, December closed at 81.21 cents, up 10 points; March 2027
finished at 82.83 cents, plus 38 points; and July 2027 settled at 83.61 cents,
74 points higher. Thursday's estimated volume was 53,006 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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