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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/11 12:02
Fed Cash Cattle Prices Trade $4.00 to $10.00 Higher
Upon seeing the cash cattle market trade higher, traders had no issue
pushing the cattle contracts higher.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The biggest and most exciting news of the day has been the rallying nature
of the fed cash cattle market as prices are trading $10.00 higher in the North
and $4.00 to $6.00 higher in the South. More trade is likely to develop this
afternoon, but it's likely that the week's prices are set at this point. July
corn is down 4 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is unchanged. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is down 345.31 points and NASDAQ is down 19.87 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
What a day, what a day, what a day! Upon seeing some light trade finally
develop in the fed cash cattle market -- traders took one look at what the
prices were of the cash market and opted to shoot the live cattle contracts
mostly $2.00 to $3.00 higher. A light trade has developed this morning in the
North at $380, which is $10.00 higher than last week's weighted average in
Nebraska. Some Southern live cattle have traded at $228 to $230, which is $4.00
to $6.00 higher than last week's weighted average. From a sheerly fundamental
aspect, the power in this week's fed cash cattle market far outweighs the
bearish note of the seasonal decline in boxed beef prices, which is why traders
are willing to propel the contracts higher. August live cattle are up $3.15 at
$222.37, October live cattle are up $2.60 at $219.65 and December live cattle
are up $2.40 at $219.65.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets of
2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 170 million pounds as packers
are expected to run slower chain speeds in the second half of the year. Steer
prices for the remaining quarters of 2025 were unchanged from last month's
projection, and the first quarter prices for 2026 were unchanged as well.
Steers are still anticipated to average $226 in the third quarter of 2025, $229
in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $227 in the first quarter of 2026. Beef
imports for 2025 were increased by 190 million pounds compared to last month's
report, and beef exports were increased by 28 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $1.11 ($383.55) and select up $1.52
($372.38) with a movement of 82 loads (67.80 loads of choice, 10.26 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 3.92 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
It's another exhilarating day for the feeder cattle complex as the market is
trading higher thanks to the continued support of strong market fundamentals,
and the sheer willingness of traders to remain engaged in the marketplace.
August feeders are up $2.57 at $323.85, September feeders are up $2.52 at
$323.75 and October feeders are up $2.25 at $321.37. All throughout the week,
the feeder cattle complex was well supported. Buyers have aggressively been
procuring calves in auctions throughout the countryside, but upon seeing the
fed cash cattle market trade higher -- the feeder cattle complex grabbed
another bullish factor and opted to continue to trade higher.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading lower into Friday's noon hour as pork cutout
values are slightly lower and there simply isn't enough trader support to push
the contracts higher at this point. August lean hogs are down $0.82 at $105.40,
October lean hogs are down $0.65 at $91.62 and December lean hogs are down
$0.75 at $83.22. It's likely that the market continues to trade in this
sluggish manner through the day's end.
The projected lean hog index for 7/10/2025 is down $0.04 at $107.10, and the
actual index for 7/9/2025 is up $0.10 at $107.14. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $6.71 with a weighted average price of
$106.04, ranging from $99.00 to $113.50 on 1,459 head and five-day rolling
average of $111.48. Pork cutouts total 175.77 loads with 161.52 loads of pork
cuts and 14.25 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.68, $112.47.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the hog and pork markets of
2025. Pork production for 2025 was increased as processing speeds and carcass
weights are expected to increase in the second half of the year. Pork
production for 2025 is now anticipated to be 28,041 million pounds, which is 45
million pounds more than last month's estimation. Hog prices were improved from
last month's report as hog prices in the third quarter of 2025 are now expected
to average $76 (up $1.00), $65 in the fourth quarter of 2025 (up $2.00) and $64
(up $1.00) in the first quarter of 2026. Pork imports for 2025 have been
increased by 10 million pounds, and pork exports increased by 25 million pounds.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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